News commentary and predictions of political trends and what the future holds

North Korea

South Korea’s war words

April 1, 2013

South Korea to react without hesitation is the response of South Korea to the sabre rattling from the North Koreans.  One of the world’s largest armies against one of the most technologically advanced backed by the USA in no uncertain terms.  Some needs to find an olive branch.  Nobody will gain by a sudden breakout of war due to a mistake or the acts of an individual.

The solution to North Korea

February 13, 2013

Here we are again – international disapproval of North Korea’s nuclear programme. Or with Iran’s. The question in North Korea’s case is under what scenario do they plan to use a nuclear weapon? Wiping out one, two or even six coastal cities in the US west does not achieve enough for them to win a war against America, that much is quite clear. The more likely scenario is a nuclear standoff – where an attempted attack by NK is met with a bristling of the entire world’s military against them, and that could result in the first UN invasion of a country.

China would have little political difficulty in abandoning its worrying child if its acts were to result in a full scale US invasion on its doorstep and obviously it would mean less threat to China if it were instead to remove the NK regime, itself.

Nuclear politics change allegiances. It softens enemies by making military progress limited. It causes enemies to reflect more carefully about their opponents’ strategies. It also makes any provocation lop-sided. Perhaps a guerilla attack on a nuclear territory qualifies as “terrorism” for that very reason. Populations become more terrified of the response to rather than the instance of attacks, making conventional revenge by the nuclear armed defender seem more than justified.

Guardian article

The UN declares it will take significant action against North Korea for violation of international law. UN Security council condemnation – Telegraph

Doomwatch: North Korea

January 25, 2013

North Korea is rattling sabres at the US by conducting ballistic missile tests and describing them as partly tests for satellite launches and also now as preparation for attacks on the USA. Recent UN resolutions to tighten sanction in light of the recent rocket tests have included their primary ally China who are suggesting that it is not the time to make threats. The history of the North/South Korean war and partitioning remains the bitter theme in the heart of the North Korean regime.

North Korea has demonstrated its prowess in technology but is still an infant when it comes to diplomacy. A military regime that basically starves its people into military service appears to operate as a cult of personality around its anointed despotic family.

They are many miles ahead of Iran in the atomic game. Their direct threats to the USA appear to make little sense now, 21st century political thinking would suggest that amalgamation of North and South under a common government could do so much for the Korean people. It seems very simple from the outside but it obviously is not. North Korea a state with aims to invade as nakedly obvious as it is, it does not have the resources to attack America effectively. But it does have a terrible bargaining advantage if it were to try to invade South Korea with nuclear menace. It it were to show itself to be such a malign power with its huge army, it would become a threat to China, Russia and Japan as well as the US.

North Korea must return to the negotiating table and grow up into the 21st century. Then again it would be good if all the other nuclear armed countries did the same.

Guardian news item

North Korea

June 28, 2009

Is North Korea so insecure that it believes that it needs to threaten the United States in order to maintain its independence? The answer is most probably yes.

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