News commentary and predictions of political trends and what the future holds

war

Nuclear Threat

July 29, 2017

Does North Korea pose a genuine threat to the USA with a handful of nuclear missiles pointed in its general direction?

Does the USA pose a genuine threat to North Korea?

Both bear the scars of a dreadful war in the early 1950s; a war that has not officially ended. In the intervening years, South Korea has emerged as a powerhouse exporting nation with advanced technology competing with Japan and China boasting companies such as Samsung. North Korea, in comparison, has locked itself into a military specialisation to the detriment of its own people who slavishly admire their leader or land up in a gulag, starved to death.

And now they are testing ICBM missiles and it is only a matter of time before they are able to use one against its enemy, the sponsor of South Korea, the USA. And now both countries have belligerent leaders who want to prove themselves with a “good war”.

The USA accuse Russia and China of responsibility here. Russia and China would rather not be at war with the USAA, so having a proxy threat is perhaps useful. All out nuclear war, of course, is in the interests of nobody.

What is the endgame for this terrible standoff? It seems unlikely that either party would not blink due to the nature of Nuclear weapons. If North Korea were to risk launching one, the retaliation could be complete and final. They will never have enough weapons to stop a systematic invasion let alone a nuclear response, but America would most likely have to live with the threat until it can justify action to China and Russia or better yet, engage with them to finally oust the military regime of North Korea.

Guardian article

Reunification turned Germany into a world leader. It is time for Korea to reconsider its path for mutual benefit between the North and the South. Is it in the interests of the West, Japan or anyone for North Koreans to suffer so and for the shroud of death to hang over the region? Does Trump style diplomacy help or is there a better way to help the Koreans to unify?

Fear drives North Korea to act


Shoot to kill

June 6, 2017

The Prime Minister, electioneering, has said that she fully supports “shoot to kill” while defending herself from the resonant accusation that she reduced the police forces during her time as Home Secretary and since by nearly 50,000.

“Shoot to kill” may sound like a brief action of a few armed officers but the concentration of automatic weapon brandishing officers in London has increased so much in the last ten years. The reduction in police on the beat has made the city feel under siege rather than safe.

Armed police are useless as investigators. As a last resort, they are more effective than a riot squad armed with batons, but it is only as a last resort are they at all effective. The PM is blind to the actual problem, she thinks that brute force is the only path to defeating terrorism, but it is actually the presence of many police with guns that normalises the fear and rewards terrorism for changing the way that we live, under constant reminders of threat.

London has over 2 million cameras which are nearly useless in detection but serve police well after an incident has occurred as investigatory tools. Reduction of police forces by such large numbers means that the support staff necessary to investigate and detect simply are not there. Being able to also now monitor internet chatter would not strengthen detection, it would require another 100,000 back office staff. There are not enough now to detect issues and thinking they can trail 20,000 people and predict that when they hire vehicle, they should be arrested, is plainly illogical.

To defeat terrorism, remove the reasons that stimulate it. Of course, there will always be radicals and insane criminality. Of course, there will always be thugs. But breeding them with an imbalanced society and starving the police of resources is Theresa May’s real crime. She is the cause of this rash of terrorism.


Attacking Syria

November 20, 2015

The latest craze indulged in by Western Governments seems to be dropping bombs on Syria. It is intended to stop Daesh/ISIL from its path of terrorising civilisation but there are so many consequences that can not be sensed from 30,000 feet above. Bombs kill people, destroy lives and property as well as terrorists.


ISIL

December 18, 2014

Is it possible to grow up believing that others are not as worthy as you are. That there is a difference between you and others based on what you believe? Of course it is.

Most young people attach to one thing or another to their souls as they negotiate with the world. For some it is sport or pursuit of a mate. For others is a religious belief. The developing mind seems prone to go off on terrible tangents. Youth can act with a severity that no other age would likely tolerate or appreciate. The trick is to grow up successfully despite those who would lock us into teenaged angst through our whole lives. These include pederastic predators, certain cults and religious schools as well as dangerous sports and war.

Is ISIS a terrorist organisation, a revolution or simply a creation of the CIA? It probably is all three in its relationship with the external world. But internally it seems to operate like a cult with: hidden language, secrets and revelations, fervent worship of a figurehead, fear, a central philosophy to believe in and a powerful adhesive force that locks people into its grip.

By creating freedom fighter armies the warmongers are able to assist in proxy wars but creating an armed force has a certain danger. They may treat populations as the enemy as would appear to be the case with the ISIL terrorists. By proclaiming a caliphate they seek legitimacy in the modern world by using its technology to enslave and intimidate people.

They arose out of Iraq and Syria and have installed themselves, murdering thousands and enslaving entire populations to their teenaged whims. Their violence is extraordinary and completely out of place in modern civilisation. Are they any worse than Bashir Assad and his civil war and devastation of Syria? They are, because they are fighting a war they want to take to the world. And the world does not want to live like that so resistance is inevitable.

However that speaks of a future, at the present they control much of Iraq and Syria.


Religion and Extinction

December 15, 2014

We are different to any other species in that we have evolved what we call economics, science of extending survival. Or is it a massive inter-generational war that the current political generation are guilty of, increasingly responsible for causing environmental collapse.

Why do we measure progress by growth? When we solve that one, and measure progress with an economics that includes compounding interest for any future consequence of our indulgence.

Only then we can call ourselves good Christians or good Muslims or good Jews. We remain greedy and primitive in our mutual interests. Why think like this?

Part of the lesson of certain matters remaining secular and out of the control of the driving faith or the possessors of property or the military – but that the ultimate control must remain honestly in the hands of the people. So we have countries for that. But faith is a personal matter and your path to your saviour or prophet is a relationship between your self and something all powerful. Therefore when you are praying together it is as though a casting of individual threads to your personal heaven is a revelation to the self, not to the army, not to the workforce, not to the merchants, the bankers or even the holy ones we listen to preach their secret messages in sermons to the initiated. In all religions there seems to be a strata that pulls people up – spirituality is a wonderful thing, don’t get me wrong.

Having to take sides for your whole life is the commitment of belief. But the essence of individuality is the thing. It is the most important and elusive thing. Your thread can vibrate within a group but it can also find its own pattern. It does not matter. If we align beliefs into destructive paths then as a group we start to consume that which we have no right to, we take that we have to leave alone. The first lesson in The Book of Genesis was not to take the forbidden fruit from the tree of knowledge or die. Not to take the irreplaceable fruit means we must consider requirements of future life in our consumption.

The ways in which competing religions have interpreted this basic tenet of their own belief is astounding. The destruction of species is wanton, selfish and will result on our own death.

These words or wisdom are drowned by the clash of battle as we fight for our set of beliefs. But this fundamental exists. If we sow extinction, then we will become extinct. I am just not sure if today’s political science really gives a damn about the future.


World at war?

May 14, 2014

John Pilger is both a respected journalist and a bit of an alarmist. And what is wrong with alarm in today’s world where American influence stamps all over alternative values. After the binary division of the world that was the Cold War, The New American Century’s New World Order briefly reigned. It seems that the American incursion into Ukraine politics is the latest in a long list of US military acts in the name of democracy overthrowing democratically elected governments that Pilger writes about, usually from a war zone.

His recent article article about Dr Strangelove raises the alarm to a new level. Are the American military a hungry lumbering beast machine that needs war to create demand for itself so it can run up more debt someone can call growth in the economy? Or is it the world’s freedom fighter, overturning injustice like some sort of Superman, knowing the results of its actions must be believed in, not only by the fundamentalists who seem to believe anything. But by the liberals as well.


Theft of a airliner a possibility

March 18, 2014

Updates

Article published 13 March 2014 1030GMT

Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370 that has disappeared, could be suspected causing engine status update blips for four hours after the flight cut all contact with the ground. Are we seeing, once again the signs of a 9/11 style event being prepared for by stealing airliners, probably murdering the passengers as human shields are no longer relevant and a big complex hostage drama is a distraction to the achievement of the end goal.

No, it is hard to admit but Osama bin Laden achieved more for Islam (most of it awful and terrible) than the Ayatollah Khomeni did in his long standoff drama with the USA and ensuing isolation. The 4 hour range of the flight takes it somewhere and the US must be concerned about. If anyone can find where its probably landed, the American security apparatus better be able to. Otherwise the world may be held to ransom. That arc of suspicion takes in Pakistan and the Arabian Sea.

The media have probably been fed red herrings when it comes to passenger information, the fake passports of two Iranian asylum seekers, or whatever they really were if they exist, as those kinds of details distract from the obvious. The search for where the plane exploded over the sea is prevents “panic”. But a jet liner being stolen in Pakistan may indeed have another purpose. If the Taleban has stolen it then it is possibly for an extraordinary ransom, to fund their war, or as an end game bargaining tool. Or indeed a weapon.

How can this kind of thing happen? The international air security apparatus is supposed to prevent this sort of incident. Of course this is purely conjecture, but it does make more sense than the plane vanishing. There has to be a logic to the explanation, and complete vanishment seems unlikely.

It would reassure the public who now possibly endangered by the stolen airliner. If it is a disparate group like the 9/11 crew rather than a political entity, for example, The Taleban, the aircraft may have a planned use. The clock is ticking.


Update Mar. 13th 1500GMT: apparently the signals from the engines did not get received, after all. Maybe officials at Mayasian Airlines have been told to deny this?


Update: Mar. 14th 0045GMT: And now The White House is exhausting all possibilities including searching over the Indian Ocean and Vietnam. Maybe my theory is correct. The simple theft of the asset means landing it and hiding it in plain sight.


Update 18 March Wired magazine publishes more sensible explanation written by a pilot. I think his explanation may likely be correct considering the non finding of evidence and silence of the passengers due to asphyxia of the entire plane who were probably never to wake up.



The effects of war

March 6, 2014

Here is a video by Save the Children that rather shows the effect of war on children.


Ugly Politicians

January 4, 2014

Perhaps I should qualify: three ugly politicians. They are also bad politicians.

Now, I do not mean that all bad politicians are ugly, far from it. Nor that all ugly politicians are bad. Not at all. I just mean that these three and various other villains become or are ugly. This is no attempt to draw comparisons or correlations – lets leave that to the experts! No, what I want to do is purely character assassination.

Kim Jong Il – although it would be churlish to fail to acknowledge how beautiful he is considered by his own media and owned people.

And the two on this sorry tale of appeasement. The sad figure is now bankrupt non-player and BNP leader Nick Griffin who seems to desperately try to take Britain back to the middle ages when a man could have surfs basically defending cruel dictator “I have a right to murder all my people” Bashar Assad because Damascus is not in ruins (as if he would bomb himself) but is leading a bustling life. Because Mr Griffin is able to deny what he sees he is able to maintain a set of beliefs.

How much of our image of Assad is formed by propaganda? Or is he the real thing, more evil than ugly but about as evil looking as Hitler?


Pause and win

August 31, 2013

How Obama could deal with Syria. Play the long game and make Assad do it. Invasion seems pointless. Everyone appears to be at war with everyone else – want to join in? Get the chemical weapons out of the equation

President Obama drew a red line in the sand and to maintain any dignity he has to make good his threat. That is yesterday’s thinking. The need to retaliate for the use of chemical weapons by someone in Syria points to one thing. Syria has illegal weapons and he needs to be made to get rid of them. Not by invasion, that is too expensive. Not by trying to blow Damascus into the ground – you would kill large numbers of civilians, too.

But by negotiation. Imagine this?

President O: President Assad, you are guilty of possessing chemical weapons and they are being used. We suggest that you have lost control of your weapons and are therefore now a danger to the world. You have to now stop your war and we have to destroy your weapons or the world will force my hand and we will have to hunt you down. Your crimes against humanity are well documented, both before and largely since the war.

President A: We will never hand over our weapons. If you attack us, we will defend ourselves.

President O: We have heard that one before, and look what our generals did to Saddam. Now we have nothing against the good people of Syria. We have a problem with you harbouring and allowing or using deadly gas against any people. We can destroy them safely and if you hand them over now, we will do it for no charge and help the new Government rebuild.

President A: I will never agree to this.

President O: Then I would not stand so close to the window, Bashar. [CLICK!]

Twenty years ago, that would be pure paranoid conspiracy. Today, that is probably how this will pan out. Bombing Damascus would simply be sad. It is not the fault of the inhabitants. Destroy Syrian air=power – now if that was achieved then more chemical weapon attacks would be a significant risk. The only strategy is to force the most influential actor in this, Assad, to rid Syria of Chemical Weapons so when he inevitably faces trial for his crimes against humanity, there would be something positive in the balance.


USA in undeclared war?

February 1, 2013

Ron Paul says that the US is in an undeclared war after the French incursion to rescue Mali from Islamic invasion, now being backed by the junior horse in the “Special Relationship” between the UK and USA may start to imply US involvement. Perhaps in an “Expendables” kind of way, a secret order of ageing knights gather in a glade on horseback are rearranging pieces in case USA involvement in a declared “war on terrorism” and invasion is one of those things that the West sees as troublesome and terrifying to swathes of civilisation.

Iran is angry that Israel conducts a military attack on a convoy of weapons headed toward Lebanon. Syria’s borders are not exactly secure with a vicious civil war that the West maybe can not justify an intervention as the rebellion does not appear to be one that will bring peace.


The emtremities of war

December 8, 2012

So now we have a war of assassins.

While the West attacks the Taliban leadership with remotely controlled preditory model aircraft attempting to pin-point terrorists they still managed to kill random civilians and innocents. It is brutal but compared to territorial fighting it out, wars of attrition, tank battles or the most extreme forms using WMD – it is essentially an attempt to assissinate. To chop the head off the snake. And from the other side, suicide bombers with increasingly bizarre ways to conceal explosives attempt to assassinate a leader of the Afghan military. Recruitment for these two armies seems a little lopsided. On one we have something like video game playing soldiers. On the other, self mutilation.


Syria and Iraq

July 24, 2012

In the New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/24/world/middleeast/chemical-weapons-wont-be-used-in-rebellion-syria-says.html?_r=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=edit_th_20120724 – it is evident that Syria has a large cachet of WMD.  Why?  Well Saddam’s stock must have gone somewhere when sabrés were rattled.

Syria is all that is left of the common Ba-athist political party that fell with Saddam in Iraq.  What is Ba’athism?  It is an Islamic form of Socialism.  Possibly a good thing for the Arab World to balance the many dynastic totalitarian ruled cultures that seem stuck in feudal existence.  That Syria has many weapons of mass destruction was predicted.  It was reported on the news that weapons were probably hidden in Syria, the storage place inheriting  Saddam’s WMD.  There may well have been much political cooperation between their governments both under the iron grip of a leader past his use by date, slaughtering dissidents.  His domination of a country by going to war with factions is in common.

And now the Assad regime is bombing Allepo. And denying that they would use chemical weapons on Syrians.  Foreign invaders would be a completely other matter.  Will Romney start to threaten to invade Syria?  Seems a natural.  Or he will he be beaten to it.  The temptation must be terrible on both candidates.  They see it in different terms.

All the more so as it is probably quite correct – that Syria indeed has WMD and that someone is going to do the equation that constructed history.  The problem is going to be  the brutal Assad regime.  It is going to be the WMD, and now it seems only natural that the UN will demand that Syria give them up.   Or face terrible consequences.

Who would America trust in such a scenario.  The guy who killed that terrorist guy.

 

 

 


Syria shoots down Turkish jet

June 23, 2012

Syria has shot down a Turkish jet without warning after the jet had allegedly entered Syrian airspace when it was flying low 1km off the coast. The Turkish government has vowed “necessary action” in response. Syria has issued some apologies but face international condemnation for killing thousands of protesters and those fighting the Assad regime. What happens next may help oust Assad from power or it may even drag NATO into the conflict.

Guardian article


Nuclear Famine

May 12, 2012

A limited exchange of nuclear weapons could kill a billion people in ensuing famines as the climate destabilises is the latest horror story about the greatest human mistake. Investing in racist murder. Genocide is the crime committed by any Government using nuclear weapons, and if so isolated would make themselves a target of every major nuclear power, but if retaliated against, would risk collapsing a house of cards sufficient to cause genocidal murder.

Therefore, any state that uses nuclear weapons is committing an international crime and makes itself a target. In the final analysis, the nuclear deterrent is a waste of money, a waste of energy, a waste of human effort.

CNN


The Nuclear Roulette Table

April 13, 2012

America declaring war on Iran because it may be developing nuclear weapons is a war without precedent or meaning. MAD is total faith in an endgame scenario. Iran would be extremely stupid to get a bomb, but then look who is in the club of the stupid. Gambling is stupid and the stakes are so high it would be robbing a future in the same way that the USSR collapsed and the economies of the West appear to be in terminal tailspin. Nuclear proliferation is the game with no winner like that one with a revolver, five bullets and four players.

Nuclear proliferation is an expensive shield and humanity hides under a shadow of total annihilation for idealogical enforcement or redundant residual racism? The world does not want a nuclear Iran, nor the tens of thousands of these weapons pointed at each other. Nuclear proliferation is an extremely expensive path.


The threat of Iran

March 2, 2012

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/03/world/middleeast/obama-says-military-option-on-iran-not-a-bluff.html?hp

Is Iran a threat to world peace?


Homs

February 9, 2012

9 Feb AM – Homs

The shelling of civilians by the Syrian Government forces is a civil war crack down by a brutal Ba’athist regime of Bashir al-Assad against a popular uprising in the Arab Spring.

9 Feb LATE – UPDATE: The slaughter continues.

“The patterned plastic sheets the medics had placed on the floor were slick with blood and iodine as more and more war wounded were brought in by their colleagues.” – The Guardian

10 Feb AM – MORE: Obama.

Obama speaks out against outrageous bloodshed as 100 people are confirmed dead due to the military slaughter by the Syria Armed forces attacking its own citizens.

President Bashir al-Assad’s acts of genocide to suppress a viable opposition to his rule. This kind of act usually results in a more widespread and more determined underground effort. Al-Assad appears to suffer the same delusions that George Bush did – that hard assault will quell an enemy when the reverse is true.

Any appeal to the humanity of the situation is lost under the rain of rockets. Al-Assad has shown the world that he is a dangerous criminal and nobody welcomes a war criminal.


Iran and the Taleban

December 5, 2011

Iran warns of a crushing response if US drone aircraft were in Iran’s airspace and have shot one down. Recently, NATO made a terrible mistake and attacked Pakistan forces in the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan.

It seems logical that the US may need to withdraw from its Afghan adventure, and this could leave Afghanistan to the Taleban and for Iran to engage as the local Shi’ite power. The US can probably repair the damage done in Pakistan with reparations of some sort which probably would be protecting Pakistan from its neighbours.


Iran and the Bomb

November 18, 2011

Excellent article about the Iranian point of view in The Guardian

The logic of governmental terrorism against civilisation is a long and horrible history.

It is not logical to hold humanity under threat, to hold all life under threat as a means to ensure peace as it enslaves humanity. We need some of Daniel Kahneman’s exquisite logic to run this world more successfully.


Myths about Afghanistan

September 28, 2011

Guardian Article exposes some of the myths about Afghanistan, some of which have crept into Western media as facts.


9/11 tapes

September 8, 2011

The 9/11 tapes have been published in the NY Times. This is the Air Traffic Contollers interactions with the air hostess, the hijackers and the military, the shoot down order given after the four hijacked planes crashed.

It is compelling and a frightening revelation of how people may react to circumstances that are beyond the terms of training they have received, how the military are ready to respond but helpless in the face of inadequate information. And a window into 90 minutes of extreme drama.

Rutgers Law Review has more complete information, including the full audio transcript.


Korean Intervention

June 29, 2011

Korea appears to be simmering and bristling with weapons and threat in the most sustained unresolved civil war that could it seems erupt into further provocations by the North and responses of increasing violence from the South. American forces intervened in this war in the early fifties and US bases have been operational since. It seems to be a war of one of the most technologically advanced societies against a lunging starving beast with big guns. To the mind of a North Korean, the weight of evil may appear to be from the South and their weapons. The intervention does not appear to have removed the threat but sustains its presence but suspending violence until the weapons are too horrible to contemplate. Maybe that is why military spending keeps racing ahead of society – it is only possible to render your enemy unable to attack you if you can punish them even more than they can punish you.

“We are now in the most dangerous moment in Korean history over the last 25 years,” said Andrei Lankov, a Russian professor at Seoul’s Kookmin University. “South Korea has already committed itself to a strong reaction to a future North Korean provocation so many times and so loudly that if they don’t do it they will lose elections and be shamed.


Why Terrorism is a Failure

January 17, 2010

Terrorism fails to exert political pressure on governments, as nobody in the world wants random acts of violence to take the lives of their children, or indeed themselves.

Full article