News commentary and predictions of political trends and what the future holds

The solution to North Korea

February 13, 2013

Here we are again – international disapproval of North Korea’s nuclear programme. Or with Iran’s. The question in North Korea’s case is under what scenario do they plan to use a nuclear weapon? Wiping out one, two or even six coastal cities in the US west does not achieve enough for them to win a war against America, that much is quite clear. The more likely scenario is a nuclear standoff – where an attempted attack by NK is met with a bristling of the entire world’s military against them, and that could result in the first UN invasion of a country.

China would have little political difficulty in abandoning its worrying child if its acts were to result in a full scale US invasion on its doorstep and obviously it would mean less threat to China if it were instead to remove the NK regime, itself.

Nuclear politics change allegiances. It softens enemies by making military progress limited. It causes enemies to reflect more carefully about their opponents’ strategies. It also makes any provocation lop-sided. Perhaps a guerilla attack on a nuclear territory qualifies as “terrorism” for that very reason. Populations become more terrified of the response to rather than the instance of attacks, making conventional revenge by the nuclear armed defender seem more than justified.

Guardian article

The UN declares it will take significant action against North Korea for violation of international law. UN Security council condemnation – Telegraph

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